Over And Under Betting

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The NBA might be one of the hardest sports to turn a profit in by wagering on the totals. In sports like football, hockey, or even baseball, teams can get lucky and have runs gifted to them by turnovers, own goals, or even errors. However, in basketball, a team can only score and accumulate points themselves. If they are having an off night shooting the basketball, your 'over' bet is as good as garbage. Unless of course their opponent picks up the slack and scores around 60 percent of the total - something that very rarely happens. To put that in perspective, 60 percent of 210 is 126. The final score would be 126-84, and those type of blowouts don't happen too often. If you take an 'under' and a team finishes the game shooting around 55-60% from the floor, the chances of that game staying 'under' the number are very slim.

  1. Over And Under Betting Rules
  2. Over And Under Betting Rules
  3. Under Over Betting Rules
  4. Over And Under Betting For The Nfl

If you bet the 'over' you would need a combined 43 or more points from both teams in order to win your bet (a 28-17 score would win you the bet). If you were to place your money on the 'under' you would need both teams to combine for 42 or less points throughout the game (a 21-17 game would win you the under bet). UNDER BETTING When you bet the Over Under, you don't care who wins the game, all you are focusing on is the combined score of the two teams at the end of the game. Here is a quick guide to over.

Which is why for the two reasons I stated above, the NBA is one of the hardest sports to place a totals bet on. However, if you still insist, here are some key statistics you should really look into before risking your hard-earned money. Also, check below on this article for expert tips from Doc's Sports best NBA handicapping experts for betting pro basketball totals.

Pace of Play

This is probably the most important factor to consider when looking at NBA totals, regardless of if you are favoring the 'over' or 'under'. The pace of play is a tool used by handicappers to determine an approximate number of possessions a team has per game. The thought process behind this being that the more possessions a team has per game, the quicker the game and the more opportunities each team has to score. For the math wizards out there, this will make sense to you. However, for those lacking in the math category, there is a statistical formula that is used to determine a team's pace of play.

The formula is: ((Tm Poss +Opp Poss) / 2 * (Tm MP/5)).

The first part of the formula is the simple part. It takes the number of possessions team A has and adds them to the number of possessions for Team B. The second part of the equation is the total team minutes played divided by five since there are five players on the court for each team.

For example - (99 + 93 ) / 2 * (240/5) = 79.50 possessions. This means that over the course of that specific game, Team A would have had 96 possessions. As each game passes and the formula gets used, the average number of possessions a team has per game will either increase or decrease.

Why is this important to betting NBA totals? Well, think of it this way, the more possessions a team has, the more chances they have to score and accumulate points. The more possessions a team has, the more possessions they give their opponent as well. And vice-versa for the other side. The fewer amount of possessions a team averages per game, the fewer chances to score, thus likely playing to the 'under'.

Defensive Rating / Offensive Rating

'Defensive rating' is essentially 'points allowed' but in a more detailed and complex way. The reality of the matter is that every team goes through high points and low points throughout a grueling 82-game schedule. The highs are generally buoyed by great offensive performances and by playing shut-down defense while the low times are poor performances on both sides of the ball. The 'points allowed' category considers the entire body of work, regardless of a certain spot a team is in - think third game in four nights. The averages rise and drop with each game. Defensive rating is the next step beyond 'points allowed'.

When you hear someone talking about defensive rating, they are referring to the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. This concept correlates to betting NBA totals because if a team has a defensive rating of 110.6, that means they are giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions. That in turn means the game should very likely go over the posted total. If a team has a defensive rating of anything between 100-103, there is a pretty good chance they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and tend to play to the 'under'.

Now, using the stats as the sole reason you place an NBA totals wager is foolish. You must take into consideration a plethora of other things including a team's offensive rating.

This is other side of the coin in terms of team ratings. Offensive ratings tell you how many points a team averages per 100 possessions. Not every team in the league averages 100 possessions per game (as indicated by the pace of play formula), so using this statistic on its own to blindly bet totals would be a foolish move.

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Scheduling Quirks

And lastly, I know the title says which 'stats' to focus on when betting NBA totals, and scheduling quirks isn't exactly a statistic, but it's an important piece to the puzzle. While you may watch sports on a nightly basis and yell at your TV when a player misses a shot, it's vital to keep in mind that these professional athletes are humans too. They too can get distracted with the hoopla that comes with being a pro athlete/celebrity, and they can also get tired. They are on the road plenty of the course of an 82-game season, and when they are gearing up for their third game in four nights, or fifth road game in their fifth different city on a seven-game road trip, sometimes, they just may not be feeling 100 percent.

Think about how tired you would be if you had to give it your all for 48 minutes one night, travel overnight then gear up for another game just 18 hours later. You'd be exhausted, and you probably wouldn't have any energy in your legs to make the shots you usually knock down. I get the fact that these are professional athletes and have the world of support around them, but many of them are rhythm players, and when they aren't feeling it the shots just don't drop.

It's important to look at the schedule and see where a team has been or how they've been performing prior to the game you plan on betting.

'I always look for teams that face inflated, or public, totals on a nightly basis. A good example of this is the Golden State Warriors, who have been a very good 'Under' team the last couple years (before the injuries hit this team hard). Golden State was above and beyond the best offensive team in the NBA. And they played a very fast-paced game. But they were also a team full of athletes and a very good defensive team. That might have not always shown on the scoreboard, mainly because the pace benefited both offenses, but they were good at getting stops when they needed to, and the oddsmakers would inflate the totals on a nightly basis since the general betting public would only concentrate on the 'Over' in games involving the Warriors. And the numbers were so high, a slight cold shooting streak by one or both of the teams would create a situation where the final result would come in way under the posted number.' – Doc's Sports

'I have always believed that if a team is out of the playoffs, they have a tendency to get up for the best teams in the league. It's human nature. Think about it: if you are a terrible team, wouldn't you get up for a game against the best team in the league? And, would the best team in the league not try to overlook you, not play as hard and rest a little bit in the grind of a season? Of course. So, always keep an eye on the best team facing the worst team in the league and you can use the IC Active Underdog Theory. which is essentially the underdog shows up, is an active dog. and pushes the total over. ' – Arun Shiva

'Pace of play is always going to be one of, if not the most significant factors when it comes to totals. But motivation makes a difference too. If a team is more motivated, for whatever reason, they are going to be more likely to get out and run and push the tempo. This is especially true if a team is playing in front of its home crowd because they are more likely to use that energy and put it into their transition game.' -- Nolan Sinclair, Strike Point Sports

'Basketball players are always going to have energy on the offensive end. But when teams and players get tired, you can expect it to impact them more on the defensive end, and that should mean higher point totals.' -- Robert Ferringo

'I look to bet ‘over' on teams at the end of long road trips or teams that have had to play three games in four days. Tired teams are easy to expose on the defensive end because playing team defense requires focus, effort and teamwork. If one or two guys are dragging a bit on defense, it affects the whole team and they are going to get roasted.' -- Robert Ferringo

'Offensive and defensive ratings are important. But know that motivation and line value are even more important. Consider when a team loses a star player to injury. Generally, the oddsmakers and the public overreact on the total. What they forget is that teammates tend to step their effort level up when they lose a star player and that generally leads to a short-term bump in teams going ‘over'.' -- Robert Ferringo

Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please on any of our top NBA handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, for a limited time only get three top NBA handicappers for the price of one! Click Here . Get free NBA picks today at Doc's Sports basketball predictions page.

Over And Under Betting Rules

If you bet on sports for any length of time you will without a doubt come across the Over/Under market, after all, it is one of the most bet markets in all of sports. The Over Under market is simple in its mechanism but supremely difficult to master. Its a staple of the betting public and getting to know its intricacies is the first step in adding it to your betting repertoire.

What is Over and Under Betting? Over Under Betting is a market that usually relates to the total points scored in a game. Sportsbooks set a number, called the line, and bettors wager on whether the total game points will finish over or under that figure.The Over Under market can also be offered on other measurable in-game statistics such as passing yards or assist and rebounds.

What Do the Over and Under Odds Mean?

Typically the odds are listed at -110 American (1.91 decimal). This means a bettor would need to invest $110 to win a profit of $100. Over Under odds can vary depending on the sportsbook offering the market and the volume of money that has been bet on either side of that market.

Sportsbooks will either vary the odds or vary the actual over under line being offered if a disproportionate amount of money has been bet on one side of the market. Preferably they will adjust the over under total, but in the case of the odds being adjusted (juiced by the betting public) it's not unusual to see them move out to -112 or -115 or move in to -105 and on rare occasions even +100 (double your money).

If the odds vary too far from -110, then it is most likely that the sportsbook will adjust the over under total allowing the odds to return back to parity.

For more on how to read sport odds check out our article.

How Much Do You Win On Over Under Bets?

The Over Under market is a 50/50 market meaning there are only two possible outcomes. It would seem logical that if a bettor was to win a 50/50 bet then they would return double their money. This is not the case when betting Over Under markets due to the need of the sportsbook to take a cut of the money wagered (the handle). This cut is called the ‘vig' or vigorish.

Assuming the sportsbook has attracted a close to even amount of money on both sides of the market, their vig on a -110 market is about 5%. To overcome the bookmakers margin a bettor who bets long term on the Over Under market needs to win 52.38% of the time to breakeven (assuming a consistent bet size). A win rate above 55% will return the bettor very healthy profit over time.

Of course when betting on 50/50 markets bettors will over time endure winning and losing streaks. An effective staking strategy is needed to prevent a prolonged run of losses sending your bankroll to the wall.

Statistically speaking on 100 Over Under bets, a run of 6 consecutive losses at some point is normal. A longer losing run is of course possible. An effective staking strategy is essential for any bettor looking to survive betting long term on this market.

The Take Home: The best way of improving your chances of winning more often when betting on the Over Under total is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks. This allows you to find the most favorable points total (they do vary a lot and often) as well as a decent price. Odds of -110 are about as far as you should go into the minus money realm. If you look around, you may sometimes be able to grab something slightly better than -110. With long term profitability an ongoing grind, getting the best of what is on offer is critical.

How Do Sportsbook Decide on an Over Under Number?

They use a lot of math, experience and intuition. The benefit of the over under total is that is heavily statistically based. Long term scoring averages and patterns are well established. Top bonus betting sites las vegas. Extra filters can be applied to these such as scoring at a particular venue, in certain weather conditions, against particular opponent or the inclusion or exclusion of key players. There is some serious number crunching to do.

Sportsbooks will set an ‘opening number' and then if needed vary this as game time approaches. Many factors influence the variation of the number post its initial setting. One of the biggest is the intent of the betting public. If the public vote with their dollars and bet heavily to one side of the market then the books will adjust to suit the bettors intent.

Long term Over Under bettors have usually established their own theories and systems to calculate a possible over under line. When their perceived number does not match the sportsbooks they will pounce. Many sharp bettors are ready for totals to be posted so they can access ‘weak' numbers before the books have time to adjust.

Often times sportsbook will pay close attention to who is placing the bet. If they perceive the bettor to be very successful at betting the over under market, they may adjust their line in reaction. I guess you could say it's a roundabout way of paying for information.

The Take Home: The Over Under market is big business and consistently getting the best of a sportsbooks number is not easy. Respect their decisions and be selective about which numbers you attack. Over time the weakness becomes easier to spot and your win rate will improve.

What is Does .5 mean in an Over Under Bet?

Many times on Over Under markets sportsbooks will list a total with an included half point. For example on an NFL game the over under line may be 48.5 points. Clearly it is impossible for a team to score 0.5 points and therefore hitting the 48.5 points exactly is impossible. So why is the total listed like this?

The half point, or the ‘hook' as it is commonly known, is used by bookmakers to prevent the possibility of a tied result. Let's imagine for a minute that the half point in the above example was not offered and the total was a neat 48 points instead. In this case a final score like 27 – 21 would land the game total smack on 48 points. At that point neither the over or the under would have hit and the sportsbook would be required to refund all bets.

Over And Under Betting

Scheduling Quirks

And lastly, I know the title says which 'stats' to focus on when betting NBA totals, and scheduling quirks isn't exactly a statistic, but it's an important piece to the puzzle. While you may watch sports on a nightly basis and yell at your TV when a player misses a shot, it's vital to keep in mind that these professional athletes are humans too. They too can get distracted with the hoopla that comes with being a pro athlete/celebrity, and they can also get tired. They are on the road plenty of the course of an 82-game season, and when they are gearing up for their third game in four nights, or fifth road game in their fifth different city on a seven-game road trip, sometimes, they just may not be feeling 100 percent.

Think about how tired you would be if you had to give it your all for 48 minutes one night, travel overnight then gear up for another game just 18 hours later. You'd be exhausted, and you probably wouldn't have any energy in your legs to make the shots you usually knock down. I get the fact that these are professional athletes and have the world of support around them, but many of them are rhythm players, and when they aren't feeling it the shots just don't drop.

It's important to look at the schedule and see where a team has been or how they've been performing prior to the game you plan on betting.

'I always look for teams that face inflated, or public, totals on a nightly basis. A good example of this is the Golden State Warriors, who have been a very good 'Under' team the last couple years (before the injuries hit this team hard). Golden State was above and beyond the best offensive team in the NBA. And they played a very fast-paced game. But they were also a team full of athletes and a very good defensive team. That might have not always shown on the scoreboard, mainly because the pace benefited both offenses, but they were good at getting stops when they needed to, and the oddsmakers would inflate the totals on a nightly basis since the general betting public would only concentrate on the 'Over' in games involving the Warriors. And the numbers were so high, a slight cold shooting streak by one or both of the teams would create a situation where the final result would come in way under the posted number.' – Doc's Sports

'I have always believed that if a team is out of the playoffs, they have a tendency to get up for the best teams in the league. It's human nature. Think about it: if you are a terrible team, wouldn't you get up for a game against the best team in the league? And, would the best team in the league not try to overlook you, not play as hard and rest a little bit in the grind of a season? Of course. So, always keep an eye on the best team facing the worst team in the league and you can use the IC Active Underdog Theory. which is essentially the underdog shows up, is an active dog. and pushes the total over. ' – Arun Shiva

'Pace of play is always going to be one of, if not the most significant factors when it comes to totals. But motivation makes a difference too. If a team is more motivated, for whatever reason, they are going to be more likely to get out and run and push the tempo. This is especially true if a team is playing in front of its home crowd because they are more likely to use that energy and put it into their transition game.' -- Nolan Sinclair, Strike Point Sports

'Basketball players are always going to have energy on the offensive end. But when teams and players get tired, you can expect it to impact them more on the defensive end, and that should mean higher point totals.' -- Robert Ferringo

'I look to bet ‘over' on teams at the end of long road trips or teams that have had to play three games in four days. Tired teams are easy to expose on the defensive end because playing team defense requires focus, effort and teamwork. If one or two guys are dragging a bit on defense, it affects the whole team and they are going to get roasted.' -- Robert Ferringo

'Offensive and defensive ratings are important. But know that motivation and line value are even more important. Consider when a team loses a star player to injury. Generally, the oddsmakers and the public overreact on the total. What they forget is that teammates tend to step their effort level up when they lose a star player and that generally leads to a short-term bump in teams going ‘over'.' -- Robert Ferringo

Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please on any of our top NBA handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, for a limited time only get three top NBA handicappers for the price of one! Click Here . Get free NBA picks today at Doc's Sports basketball predictions page.

Over And Under Betting Rules

If you bet on sports for any length of time you will without a doubt come across the Over/Under market, after all, it is one of the most bet markets in all of sports. The Over Under market is simple in its mechanism but supremely difficult to master. Its a staple of the betting public and getting to know its intricacies is the first step in adding it to your betting repertoire.

What is Over and Under Betting? Over Under Betting is a market that usually relates to the total points scored in a game. Sportsbooks set a number, called the line, and bettors wager on whether the total game points will finish over or under that figure.The Over Under market can also be offered on other measurable in-game statistics such as passing yards or assist and rebounds.

What Do the Over and Under Odds Mean?

Typically the odds are listed at -110 American (1.91 decimal). This means a bettor would need to invest $110 to win a profit of $100. Over Under odds can vary depending on the sportsbook offering the market and the volume of money that has been bet on either side of that market.

Sportsbooks will either vary the odds or vary the actual over under line being offered if a disproportionate amount of money has been bet on one side of the market. Preferably they will adjust the over under total, but in the case of the odds being adjusted (juiced by the betting public) it's not unusual to see them move out to -112 or -115 or move in to -105 and on rare occasions even +100 (double your money).

If the odds vary too far from -110, then it is most likely that the sportsbook will adjust the over under total allowing the odds to return back to parity.

For more on how to read sport odds check out our article.

How Much Do You Win On Over Under Bets?

The Over Under market is a 50/50 market meaning there are only two possible outcomes. It would seem logical that if a bettor was to win a 50/50 bet then they would return double their money. This is not the case when betting Over Under markets due to the need of the sportsbook to take a cut of the money wagered (the handle). This cut is called the ‘vig' or vigorish.

Assuming the sportsbook has attracted a close to even amount of money on both sides of the market, their vig on a -110 market is about 5%. To overcome the bookmakers margin a bettor who bets long term on the Over Under market needs to win 52.38% of the time to breakeven (assuming a consistent bet size). A win rate above 55% will return the bettor very healthy profit over time.

Of course when betting on 50/50 markets bettors will over time endure winning and losing streaks. An effective staking strategy is needed to prevent a prolonged run of losses sending your bankroll to the wall.

Statistically speaking on 100 Over Under bets, a run of 6 consecutive losses at some point is normal. A longer losing run is of course possible. An effective staking strategy is essential for any bettor looking to survive betting long term on this market.

The Take Home: The best way of improving your chances of winning more often when betting on the Over Under total is to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks. This allows you to find the most favorable points total (they do vary a lot and often) as well as a decent price. Odds of -110 are about as far as you should go into the minus money realm. If you look around, you may sometimes be able to grab something slightly better than -110. With long term profitability an ongoing grind, getting the best of what is on offer is critical.

How Do Sportsbook Decide on an Over Under Number?

They use a lot of math, experience and intuition. The benefit of the over under total is that is heavily statistically based. Long term scoring averages and patterns are well established. Top bonus betting sites las vegas. Extra filters can be applied to these such as scoring at a particular venue, in certain weather conditions, against particular opponent or the inclusion or exclusion of key players. There is some serious number crunching to do.

Sportsbooks will set an ‘opening number' and then if needed vary this as game time approaches. Many factors influence the variation of the number post its initial setting. One of the biggest is the intent of the betting public. If the public vote with their dollars and bet heavily to one side of the market then the books will adjust to suit the bettors intent.

Long term Over Under bettors have usually established their own theories and systems to calculate a possible over under line. When their perceived number does not match the sportsbooks they will pounce. Many sharp bettors are ready for totals to be posted so they can access ‘weak' numbers before the books have time to adjust.

Often times sportsbook will pay close attention to who is placing the bet. If they perceive the bettor to be very successful at betting the over under market, they may adjust their line in reaction. I guess you could say it's a roundabout way of paying for information.

The Take Home: The Over Under market is big business and consistently getting the best of a sportsbooks number is not easy. Respect their decisions and be selective about which numbers you attack. Over time the weakness becomes easier to spot and your win rate will improve.

What is Does .5 mean in an Over Under Bet?

Many times on Over Under markets sportsbooks will list a total with an included half point. For example on an NFL game the over under line may be 48.5 points. Clearly it is impossible for a team to score 0.5 points and therefore hitting the 48.5 points exactly is impossible. So why is the total listed like this?

The half point, or the ‘hook' as it is commonly known, is used by bookmakers to prevent the possibility of a tied result. Let's imagine for a minute that the half point in the above example was not offered and the total was a neat 48 points instead. In this case a final score like 27 – 21 would land the game total smack on 48 points. At that point neither the over or the under would have hit and the sportsbook would be required to refund all bets.

The Take Home:With the sport betting industry becoming increasingly sophisticated and odds makers becoming very efficient, it is incredible the amount of times a bet is decided by that measly half point. It's a fine line between winning and losing when you bet the Over Under Totals and at times it can feel like the cruelest bet type in the business. Hang tough. Those bad beats will even out with back door wins. Keep your emotions in check and you will make better decisions.

What Happens If The Over Under is Exact?

If a market is offered without the hook or half point it becomes possible for the final scoreline to land on that exact total. When this occurs bettors will receive a refund. In the betting game it is known as a push, much the way it is in blackjack when a player ties with the dealer. A push simply means your money is returned.

While there are times that a bettor may feel like they dodged a bullet when their team scores late points to force a push much of the time it's a bit of an empty feeling. A push is clearly better than a loss, but it's not a win. The sports betting game is all about getting wins.

Interestingly sportsbooks try to avoid the scenario where a push occurs as it effectively means they have made no money. As already discussed the mechanism for making money on this bet type is to include a vig on the payouts to the winning bettors. If no one wins and all money is returned then there is no vig taken either. For that reason sportsbooks prefer to use the half point to ensure a winner is decided.

Why would a sportsbook ever bother putting up a total without the half point? The main reason for this is if the over under game total lands on a key number (ie a common multiple of the games scoring plays) then adding (or subtracting) a half point to the total may skew the betting handle too far in one direction. At that point the book may decide to remain on the flat score without the half point and take the risk of a push.

The Take Home:Look out for a half point that works to your advantage. For example if you are betting unders ideally you want the half point to push the line above a key number (eg 48.5 as opposed to 48). This subtle change could be the difference between a push and a win. Turning pushes into wins is how longterm bettors hit above the magic 52.38% win rate.

Does Over Under Include Overtime?

Over and Under points totals include overtime. Being aware of this is of utmost importance. Depending on the sport you are betting on, scoring in overtime can be quite heavy and more often than not it guarantees the over total being a winner.

Imagine for a minute you have placed a bet on the Over Game Total market in a regular season NBA game. The game total line is installed at 227.5.

Now let's imagine that very late in the fourth quarter, with only seconds remaining, scores are locked up at 108. The game total to this point is 216 points. The over bet looks beaten but isn't quite done yet. It desperately needs the game to go to overtime because at that point its easy to imagine another 12 points being scored in the extra added minutes. If the game goes to overtime the Overs bettors probably cash.

Over And Under Betting Rules

The Take Home:It is for this reason that the Over Under game totals in games that are expected to be close are sometimes marginally inflated. Isle of man gambling supervision commission. The risk of overtime is increased and that favors the overs. In my opinion fade overtime and take the unders because the game total may be slightly higher due to the expected close result.

What is an Alternate Over Under?

Alternate Over Under betting markets are offered on all major sports where the traditional market sees plenty of action. The purpose of alternate markets is to attract bettors to longer odds (more risk) or the perceived safer option which will have more generous number but a much smaller return.

Essentially the alternate Over Under Totals allow bettor to choose their level of risk.

Below is an example of some alternate Over Under markets:

As can be seen here four alternate line options are given to the bettor. In this case the Alternate Total A and C favor the Over, with B and D favoring the Under result. Options A and B utilise the half point, with C and D using whole numbers and bringing in the possibility of a push.

Under Over Betting Rules

Interestingly the ‘spread' between the highest alternate total (219 points) and the lowest alternate total (214.5 Points) is only 5 points or about 2% of the total game scoring. Not much variation considering the accompanying change in odds. For a point of reference the actual Over Under Total offered on the above game was 216 points.

The Take Home: If you are confident about your analysis of a number, maybe look to the alternate lines to grab some extra juice. Likewise if you are a bit wary of a number maybe seek out insurance by taking an alternate number at lower odds. As they say a winner at any price is better than a loser.

Should I Be PointsBetting on Over Under Markets?

Taking the longer odds on alternate lines markets is a bet to beat the books by more than just a point of half point. If you become skilled at betting the Over Under market and you should consider PointsBetting as an option.

The Take Home: PointsBetting is an exciting form of betting brought to the market by the Pointsbet Sportsbook. It rewards the bettors for being ‘more right' on markets like the over under. It is well worth a look. A complete guide on what PointsBetting is and how you can profit from this style of betting can be found right here!

The Game Starts Now!

Over And Under Betting For The Nfl

Over and Under betting is a market style that all bettors should get to know. While it may not be a staple for all bettors it's worth adding to the repertoire as it favors opportunistic bettors who see value and pounce. Not to mention its a white knuckled ride that is high on entertainment value for any bettor!

Good Luck and as always gamble responsibly!





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